A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
